The 2026 Thesis: The Year Software Hit the Wall

Welcome to 2026.

While the rest of the business world spent the last two weeks writing “New Year’s Resolutions,” the ground beneath us shifted.

If 2025 was the year of AI Hype, 2026 is the year of Industrial Reality.

The signals are flashing red. The Trump Administration is gearing up for a high-growth, deregulated manufacturing boom. Meanwhile, the AI revolution has moved from “cool chatbots” to an existential threat for the entire service economy.

Looking at the chaos of late 2025 (from Nike’s sold-out 3D-printed drop to the collapsing M&A markets) a clear pattern has emerged.

Here is the Business War Room Thesis for the year ahead. We are tracking three massive shifts that will define the winners (and the casualties) of 2026.

Shift 1: The “Energy Dividend” & Hard Asset Boom

For the last decade, “innovation” meant writing code. In 2026, innovation means moving matter and securing energy. The world is awash in cheap energy, and that changes the calculus for everything.

The Signal: $1.99 Gas & Regime Change. The cost of energy is collapsing, fueling a re-industrialization boom.

• USA: Gas prices hitting $1.99 under the new administration isn’t just a consumer tax break; it’s a massive subsidy for domestic manufacturing. Cheap energy makes “Made in USA” profitable again.
• Venezuela: The stunning capture of the Venezuelan President by US forces signals the potential reopening of the world’s largest oil reserves to Western markets, flooding the supply side.
• Nigeria: The Dangote Refinery is fully operational, crashing local fuel prices and proving that Energy Sovereignty (refining your own crude) works.

The 2026 Prediction: This “Energy Dividend” will power the Hard Asset Boom. With energy costs down, energy-intensive industries (AI Data Centers, 3D Printing, Robotics) will explode. The winners will be the companies building the physical infrastructure to consume this cheap power.

The Manufacturing Signal: Nike’s Air Max 1000. Nike sold out a 3D-printed shoe instantly. The market is starving for physical innovation.

Shift 2: The Great Service Wipeout (No One is Coming to Save You)

We are predicting a massive collapse in the Service Industries, and the financial markets won’t bail them out.

The Signal: The Paramount Deal Collapse. The hostile $108B bid for Warner Bros has officially been rejected by the WBD board, and shareholders are refusing to tender.

• The “Zero Value” Admission: In a desperate move to justify their bid, Paramount argued that WBD’s cable channels were “worth nothing”, a stunning admission that proves the legacy model is toxic.
• The Lesson: Wall Street refuses to fund debt-heavy consolidation. If your core business (Cable/Services) is dying, adding scale just creates a bigger corpse.
• The “Tailwind” Cut: Tailwind cutting 75% of engineers proves that AI is the only way to survive the margin compression.

The 2026 Prediction: We will see a shift from M&A to Liquidation. If companies like Warner Bros cannot be sold, they will be broken up. The “Service Collapse” will not be solved by mergers; it will be solved by Bankruptcies and AI Automation.

Shift 3: From “Trust” to “Proof” (The Mercor Signal)

If the service sector is collapsing because “average” work is free, then the only valuable asset left is Verified Exceptionalism.

The Signal: Mercor’s $2B Valuation. Mercor didn’t build a better resume reader. They built an “Interrogation Engine” to verify human talent because resumes are now worthless noise.

The 2026 Prediction: The biggest business opportunities will be in Verification. In a world of synthetic noise and infinite AI content, “Proof” is the most expensive asset.

• Proof of Human (Employment).
• Proof of Reality (News/Media).
• Proof of Origin (Supply Chain).

The War Room Strategy

This year, we are ignoring the noise. We are not interested in the “Next Big App.” We are interested in the Infrastructure of Reality.

We will be covering the companies that are:

1. Leveraging Cheap Energy to build physical moats (Factories & Refineries).
2. Automating Survival in the Service Collapse (AI Efficiency).
3. Selling Verification in a Zero-Trust world.

The holiday is over. The war for the real world has begun.

Let’s get to work.